Climate change can affect your ketchup

Climate change can affect your ketchup


Climate change is linked to several factors, and this time it could interfere with tomato production — bad news for lovers of ketchup, pizza, and other tomato-based products.

According to published in natural food In June, rising temperatures are expected to reduce global yields to ‘tomato growing“—for ketchup and other tomato products.

According to, until 2050global processed tomato supplies are expected to decline 6% compared to baseline study 1990-2009of which Italian culture was the most affected.

“Tomatoes are grown in the open, which means we have no control over the environment in which they grow. This makes production vulnerable to climate change,” said the lead author. David CamaranoProfessor at Aarhus University.

Co-author of the study Development of Shinyogi(professor at the University of Texas’ Jackson School of Geosciences and Cockrell School of Engineering) said that while the effects of climate on the food supply have been extensively studied, much of the focus has been on staples such as wheat and rice. .

The study is one of the first to analyze the effects of climate change on tomatoes on a global scale.

“We know very little about how climate change will affect specialty crops like tomatoes, which have incredible Global Food Footprintexcept that important source of nutrition It is also an ingredient in cuisines around the world,” Niyogi said.

The researchers used five different climate models to inform three different scenarios, predicting how rising temperatures will affect tomato production, focusing on the world’s top three tomato-producing countries: U.S. — especially California — Italy and China. These countries jointly produce about 65% of tomatoes grown worldwide.

Although the results vary in degree, the forecasted scenarios all point to the future Tomato yields will change dramatically in the coming decades.

Most scenarios point to a steady decline in production in these three countries over the next 30-40 years. In this study, the researchers detailed different factors that may exacerbate or mitigate this condition, depending on the country.

For example, both southern california like italy In addition to rising temperatures, Italy is also facing water access issues, and the country is only expected to get drier over time.This combination of warm temperatures and lack of water Nothing good for the Italian tomato industry Overall, Cammarano said.

“There is currently a large tomato growing industry in Italy, and they need to be prepared for future supply Locally produced limited edition tomatoes“, He says.

For California and China, however, there may be a silver lining for areas further north, which are cooler. Rising temperatures in these regions could lead to higher yields, and the study expects tomato production to increase steadily in northern China’s Gansu province and neighboring Mongolia.

However, even at their peak, projected production in these regions is a fraction of what California and Italy are currently producing.

Niyogi said the climate projections provided in the study are The future of global tomato productionand can help the agricultural and production industries prepare for the impacts of climate change.

“Our findings should inform the development of a Vulnerability Assessment“, he said. “This can help companies and foundations prioritize future research and operational strategies. “

Zapp //

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