UK coronavirus live: England returning to 3-tier system post-lockdown risks infection rise, warns Sage

Post-lockdown rules in England will need to be stricter than before it started, scientists warn; R number now between 1 and 1.2 for UK

2.35pm GMT

This slide shows the number of coronavirus cases falling back in most parts of Wales.

Here’s the slide from today’s press conference pic.twitter.com/bgJ6th585i

2.08pm GMT

The government has just released a new batch of papers from Sage, its Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies, and one document shows that Sage wants restrictions in England after the lockdown ends on 2 December to be stricter than what was in place when it started.

Here is the report (pdf), a consensus statement from SPI-M-O, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which is effectively a Sage sub committee. It is dated 4 November, the day before the lockdown started.

The longer-term outlook depends on both the nature of non-pharmaceutical interventions that are implemented in England after 2 December and policies over the festive period. If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before 5 November, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today.

Initial analysis shows a clear effect from tier 3 interventions and much less from tiers 1 and 2. It is not yet clear whether tier 3 measures alone are sufficient to reduce the reproduction number below 1.

If well-adhered to, the lockdown measures due to start in England on 5 November are likely to reduce R to less than 1. 24.

If this is sustained until 2 December, the number of hospital admissions and deaths would be expected to fall until at least the second week of December.

Continue reading…

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/nov/13/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-coronavirus-covid-19-latest-updates-live

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