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This slide shows the number of coronavirus cases falling back in most parts of Wales.
Here’s the slide from today’s press conference pic.twitter.com/bgJ6th585i
The government has just released a new batch of papers from Sage, its Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies, and one document shows that Sage wants restrictions in England after the lockdown ends on 2 December to be stricter than what was in place when it started.
Here is the report (pdf), a consensus statement from SPI-M-O, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which is effectively a Sage sub committee. It is dated 4 November, the day before the lockdown started.
The longer-term outlook depends on both the nature of non-pharmaceutical interventions that are implemented in England after 2 December and policies over the festive period. If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before 5 November, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today.
Initial analysis shows a clear effect from tier 3 interventions and much less from tiers 1 and 2. It is not yet clear whether tier 3 measures alone are sufficient to reduce the reproduction number below 1.
If well-adhered to, the lockdown measures due to start in England on 5 November are likely to reduce R to less than 1. 24.
If this is sustained until 2 December, the number of hospital admissions and deaths would be expected to fall until at least the second week of December.